LATEN
Los Angeles Rams @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
80% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 80% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 7.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 8,030 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Rams in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Titans -6.7.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Rams cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,970 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Turnover margin per game: Titans rank 21st (-0.4), Rams 29th (-0.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -9.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.3 |
| Win chance | LA n/a · TEN n/a | LA 80% · TEN 20% |
| Fair moneyline | LA -408 · TEN +408 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 17, LA 27.
- 80% of simulations land between LA by 27 and TEN by 6.
Side by side
| LA | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 1-6 |
| 24.3 11 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 22.7 16 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.06 10 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.06 5 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -0.7 29 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 4.2% 27 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | LA 33 @ TEN 19 | LA | LA -5.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | TEN 28 @ LA 16 | TEN | LA -7 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | LA 27 @ TEN 23 | LA | LA -5.5 |
| 2013-11-03 | 2013 Wk 9 | TEN 28 @ LA 21 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2009-12-13 | 2009 Wk 14 | LA 7 @ TEN 47 | TEN | TEN -13.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away