TENLA
Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Rams
Any-day matchup, Rams at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LALos Angeles Rams
86% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 86% pick loses about 1 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Rams can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Rams about 7.0 points stronger.
- Simulation: Rams win 8,570 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.5 points to Rams in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Rams rank 12th (+1.6), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Rams +3.0, Titans -6.7.
Disadvantages Why the Rams may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,430 of 10,000 simulations (14%). A 86% pick still loses about 1 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Rams 27th (4.2%).
- Turnover margin per game: Titans rank 21st (-0.4), Rams 29th (-0.7).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Rams lose by 3 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Rams 27th (69.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LA -12.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.3 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · LA n/a | TEN 14% · LA 86% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +600 · LA -600 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LA 28, TEN 16.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 3 and LA by 30.
Side by side
| TEN | LA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 3-4 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 24.3 11 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 22.7 16 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.06 10 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.06 5 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.7 29 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 4.2% 27 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-14 | 2025 Wk 2 | LA 33 @ TEN 19 | LA | LA -5.5 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | TEN 28 @ LA 16 | TEN | LA -7 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | LA 27 @ TEN 23 | LA | LA -5.5 |
| 2013-11-03 | 2013 Wk 9 | TEN 28 @ LA 21 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2009-12-13 | 2009 Wk 14 | LA 7 @ TEN 47 | TEN | TEN -13.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away