LACLV
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Chargers 31st (10.4%).
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Point differential per game: Raiders rank 23rd (-2.0), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Simulation: Raiders win 5,230 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,770 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 1.7 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Raiders lose by 15 or more.
- History: Chargers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 32nd in running game, EPA per carry (-0.27).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · LV n/a | LAC 48% · LV 52% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +110 · LV -110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 23, LAC 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 15 and LV by 17.
Side by side
| LAC | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 3-4 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | LV 26 @ LAC 14 | LV | LAC -6.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | LV 14 @ LAC 31 | LAC | LAC -10 |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025 Wk 2 | LAC 20 @ LV 9 | LAC | LAC -3.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | LAC 34 @ LV 20 | LAC | LAC -7 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | LV 10 @ LAC 22 | LAC | LAC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away