LVLAC
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 1.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chargers win 5,620 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- History: Chargers won 4 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Strength: Chargers rank 5th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.12).
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 4,380 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Chargers 31st (10.4%).
- Point differential per game: Raiders rank 23rd (-2.0), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Raiders in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -2.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.7 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · LAC n/a | LV 44% · LAC 56% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +128 · LAC -128 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 24, LV 22.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 14 and LAC by 19.
Side by side
| LV | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 0-6 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | 2026 Wk 2 | LV 26 @ LAC 14 | LV | LAC -6.5 |
| 2025-11-30 | 2025 Wk 13 | LV 14 @ LAC 31 | LAC | LAC -10 |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025 Wk 2 | LAC 20 @ LV 9 | LAC | LAC -3.5 |
| 2025-01-05 | 2024 Wk 18 | LAC 34 @ LV 20 | LAC | LAC -7 |
| 2024-09-08 | 2024 Wk 1 | LV 10 @ LAC 22 | LAC | LAC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away