LACNE
Los Angeles Chargers @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Chargers -9.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Simulation: Patriots win 7,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Patriots rank 6th (3.9), Chargers 28th (2.7).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 2,980 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 22nd in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.10).
- Single-game variance: one turnover or special-teams play can swing an NFL game by a touchdown.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · NE n/a | LAC 30% · NE 70% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +236 · NE -236 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 26, LAC 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 10 and NE by 24.
Side by side
| LAC | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 4-3 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | 2025 Wild Card | LAC 3 @ NE 16 | NE | NE -3.5 |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024 Wk 17 | LAC 40 @ NE 7 | LAC | LAC -6 |
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | LAC 6 @ NE 0 | LAC | LAC -4.5 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | NE 27 @ LAC 24 | NE | LAC -3.5 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | NE 45 @ LAC 0 | NE | LAC -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away