NELAC
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Chargers -9.7.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Patriots rank 6th (3.9), Chargers 28th (2.7).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,850 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Travel: Patriots cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.4 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · LAC n/a | NE 62% · LAC 38% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -160 · LAC +160 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 21, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 20 and LAC by 13.
Side by side
| NE | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 0-6 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | 2025 Wild Card | LAC 3 @ NE 16 | NE | NE -3.5 |
| 2024-12-28 | 2024 Wk 17 | LAC 40 @ NE 7 | LAC | LAC -6 |
| 2023-12-03 | 2023 Wk 13 | LAC 6 @ NE 0 | LAC | LAC -4.5 |
| 2021-10-31 | 2021 Wk 8 | NE 27 @ LAC 24 | NE | LAC -3.5 |
| 2020-12-06 | 2020 Wk 13 | NE 45 @ LAC 0 | NE | LAC -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away