LACNO
Los Angeles Chargers @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NONew Orleans Saints
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Saints can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Saints -3.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Saints win 5,240 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Chargers cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Saints in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Saints may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,760 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 1.2 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Saints lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Saints rank 30th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (+0.03).
- Weak spot: Saints rank 30th in field goal percentage (66.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NO -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · NO n/a | LAC 48% · NO 52% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +110 · NO -110 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 23, LAC 22.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 15 and NO by 18.
Side by side
| LAC | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | NO 8 @ LAC 26 | LAC | LAC -7 |
| 2020-10-12 | 2020 Wk 5 | LAC 27 @ NO 30 | NO | NO -7 |
| 2016-10-02 | 2016 Wk 4 | NO 35 @ LAC 34 | NO | LAC -4 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | LAC 24 @ NO 31 | NO | NO -3.5 |
| 2008-10-26 | 2008 Wk 8 | LAC 32 @ NO 37 | NO | LAC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away