NOLAC
New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Simulation: Chargers win 5,630 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 1.1 points stronger.
- Travel: Saints cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Strength: Chargers rank 5th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.12).
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,370 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Saints -3.0, Chargers -9.7.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.9 points to Saints in our ratings.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Saints rank 13th (5.2%), Chargers 31st (10.4%).
- Penalty yards per game: Saints rank 2nd (43.6), Chargers 30th (73.5).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.7 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · LAC n/a | NO 44% · LAC 56% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +129 · LAC -129 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 24, NO 21.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 14 and LAC by 19.
Side by side
| NO | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 0-6 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 Wk 8 | NO 8 @ LAC 26 | LAC | LAC -7 |
| 2020-10-12 | 2020 Wk 5 | LAC 27 @ NO 30 | NO | NO -7 |
| 2016-10-02 | 2016 Wk 4 | NO 35 @ LAC 34 | NO | LAC -4 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | LAC 24 @ NO 31 | NO | NO -3.5 |
| 2008-10-26 | 2008 Wk 8 | LAC 32 @ NO 37 | NO | LAC -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away