LACNYJ
Los Angeles Chargers @ New York Jets
Any-day matchup, Jets at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYJNew York Jets
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Jets can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jets -1.7, Chargers -9.7.
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Point differential per game: Jets rank 21st (-1.9), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Travel: Chargers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Jets play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Jets may not
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 1.9 points stronger.
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,930 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Jets lose by 16 or more.
- History: Chargers won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
- Weak spot: Jets rank 27th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.14).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYJ -0.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.2 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · NYJ n/a | LAC 49% · NYJ 51% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +103 · NYJ -103 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYJ 21, LAC 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 16 and NYJ by 17.
Side by side
| LAC | NYJ | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 19.6 27 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 21.4 13 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 15 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.01 14 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.4 11 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 8.2% 4 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-06 | 2023 Wk 9 | LAC 27 @ NYJ 6 | LAC | LAC -3 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | NYJ 28 @ LAC 34 | LAC | LAC -10 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | LAC 14 @ NYJ 7 | LAC | LAC -7.5 |
| 2014-10-05 | 2014 Wk 5 | NYJ 0 @ LAC 31 | LAC | LAC -7 |
| 2012-12-23 | 2012 Wk 16 | LAC 27 @ NYJ 17 | LAC | NYJ -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away