NYJLAC
New York Jets @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
58% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 58% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 1.9 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chargers win 5,770 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Jets cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- History: Chargers won 5 of the last 5 meetings (old results say little about this year's teams).
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Jets -1.7, Chargers -9.7.
- Turnover margin per game: Jets rank 11th (+0.4), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Upset odds: Jets win 4,230 of 10,000 simulations (42%). A 58% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Point differential per game: Jets rank 21st (-1.9), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Jets in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.2 |
| Win chance | NYJ n/a · LAC n/a | NYJ 42% · LAC 58% |
| Fair moneyline | NYJ +137 · LAC -137 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 23, NYJ 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYJ by 14 and LAC by 19.
Side by side
| NYJ | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 0-6 |
| 19.6 27 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 21.4 13 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| +0.00 15 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.01 14 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.4 11 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 8.2% 4 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-11-06 | 2023 Wk 9 | LAC 27 @ NYJ 6 | LAC | LAC -3 |
| 2020-11-22 | 2020 Wk 11 | NYJ 28 @ LAC 34 | LAC | LAC -10 |
| 2017-12-24 | 2017 Wk 16 | LAC 14 @ NYJ 7 | LAC | LAC -7.5 |
| 2014-10-05 | 2014 Wk 5 | NYJ 0 @ LAC 31 | LAC | LAC -7 |
| 2012-12-23 | 2012 Wk 16 | LAC 27 @ NYJ 17 | LAC | NYJ -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away