LACSEA
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
79% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 79% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 3.4 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,930 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Chargers -9.7.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Chargers win 2,070 of 10,000 simulations (21%). A 79% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 6 or more.
- Weak spot: Seahawks rank 28th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -9.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.3 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · SEA n/a | LAC 21% · SEA 79% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +384 · SEA -384 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 26, LAC 17.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 6 and SEA by 26.
Side by side
| LAC | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 4-3 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | LAC 23 @ SEA 30 | SEA | SEA -7 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | SEA 37 @ LAC 23 | SEA | LAC -5.5 |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Wk 9 | LAC 25 @ SEA 17 | LAC | SEA -1 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | SEA 21 @ LAC 30 | LAC | SEA -4.5 |
| 2010-09-26 | 2010 Wk 3 | LAC 20 @ SEA 27 | SEA | LAC -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away