SEALAC
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.7 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 3.5 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Chargers -9.7.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Chargers win 2,870 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -6.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.3 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · LAC n/a | SEA 71% · LAC 29% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -249 · LAC +249 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 17, SEA 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 24 and LAC by 10.
Side by side
| SEA | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 0-6 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | 2026 Wk 4 | LAC 23 @ SEA 30 | SEA | SEA -7 |
| 2022-10-23 | 2022 Wk 7 | SEA 37 @ LAC 23 | SEA | LAC -5.5 |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Wk 9 | LAC 25 @ SEA 17 | LAC | SEA -1 |
| 2014-09-14 | 2014 Wk 2 | SEA 21 @ LAC 30 | LAC | SEA -4.5 |
| 2010-09-26 | 2010 Wk 3 | LAC 20 @ SEA 27 | SEA | LAC -3.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away