LACTB
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Chargers -9.7.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 6,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 3,830 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 0.7 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 31st in passing offense, EPA per dropback (-0.20).
- Weak spot: Buccaneers rank 29th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -3.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · TB n/a | LAC 38% · TB 62% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC +161 · TB -161 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 24, LAC 20.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 13 and TB by 21.
Side by side
| LAC | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 2-5 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | TB 40 @ LAC 17 | TB | LAC -3 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | LAC 31 @ TB 38 | TB | TB -7.5 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | TB 28 @ LAC 21 | TB | LAC -3.5 |
| 2012-11-11 | 2012 Wk 10 | LAC 24 @ TB 34 | TB | TB -3 |
| 2008-12-21 | 2008 Wk 16 | LAC 41 @ TB 24 | LAC | TB -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away