TBLAC
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
52% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 52% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Chargers -9.7.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Chargers 32nd (-10.2).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.4 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Buccaneers rank 14th (+0.1), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,220 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Chargers win 4,780 of 10,000 simulations (48%). A 52% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Travel: Buccaneers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 0.6 points stronger.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 16 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -0.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · LAC n/a | TB 52% · LAC 48% |
| Fair moneyline | TB -109 · LAC +109 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 21, TB 22.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 17 and LAC by 16.
Side by side
| TB | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 0-6 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | 2024 Wk 15 | TB 40 @ LAC 17 | TB | LAC -3 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | LAC 31 @ TB 38 | TB | TB -7.5 |
| 2016-12-04 | 2016 Wk 13 | TB 28 @ LAC 21 | TB | LAC -3.5 |
| 2012-11-11 | 2012 Wk 10 | LAC 24 @ TB 34 | TB | TB -3 |
| 2008-12-21 | 2008 Wk 16 | LAC 41 @ TB 24 | LAC | TB -4.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away