LACTEN
Los Angeles Chargers @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
60% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 60% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 3.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chargers win 5,990 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: Chargers rank 5th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.12).
- Strength: Chargers rank 7th in defense, EPA per play allowed (-0.05).
- Relative strength: Chargers rank 12th in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.03).
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 4,010 of 10,000 simulations (40%). A 60% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Chargers cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Chargers 31st (10.4%).
- Turnover margin per game: Titans rank 21st (-0.4), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -2.5 |
| Total points | n/a | 42 |
| Win chance | LAC n/a · TEN n/a | LAC 60% · TEN 40% |
| Fair moneyline | LAC -149 · TEN +149 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 20, LAC 22.
- 80% of simulations land between LAC by 19 and TEN by 14.
Side by side
| LAC | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-6 | Record | 1-6 |
| 15.0 32 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 25.2 22 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| -0.20 32 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.05 7 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -0.8 30 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.0% 19 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | LAC 27 @ TEN 20 | LAC | LAC -10 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | TEN 17 @ LAC 27 | LAC | LAC -8 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | LAC 24 @ TEN 27 | TEN | LAC -2.5 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | TEN 14 @ LAC 17 | LAC | LAC -3 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | LAC 20 @ TEN 23 | TEN | TEN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away