TENLAC
Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Chargers
Any-day matchup, Chargers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LACLos Angeles Chargers
68% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 68% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Chargers can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Chargers about 3.5 points stronger.
- Simulation: Chargers win 6,850 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Chargers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Titans cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Strength: Chargers rank 5th in run defense, EPA per carry allowed (-0.12).
Disadvantages Why the Chargers may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 3,150 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 68% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Chargers 31st (10.4%).
- Turnover margin per game: Titans rank 21st (-0.4), Chargers 30th (-0.8).
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Chargers 30th (73.5).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Chargers lose by 10 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LAC -5.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 42 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · LAC n/a | TEN 32% · LAC 68% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +218 · LAC -218 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LAC 24, TEN 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 10 and LAC by 23.
Side by side
| TEN | LAC | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 0-6 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 15.0 32 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 25.2 22 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.20 32 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.05 7 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.8 30 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 6.0% 19 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-02 | 2025 Wk 9 | LAC 27 @ TEN 20 | LAC | LAC -10 |
| 2024-11-10 | 2024 Wk 10 | TEN 17 @ LAC 27 | LAC | LAC -8 |
| 2023-09-17 | 2023 Wk 2 | LAC 24 @ TEN 27 | TEN | LAC -2.5 |
| 2022-12-18 | 2022 Wk 15 | TEN 14 @ LAC 17 | LAC | LAC -3 |
| 2019-10-20 | 2019 Wk 7 | LAC 20 @ TEN 23 | TEN | TEN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away