LVNO
Las Vegas Raiders @ New Orleans Saints
Any-day matchup, Saints at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NONew Orleans Saints
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Saints can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Saints -3.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Saints win 5,510 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Saints play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Raiders cross 2 time zones for this one.
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
Disadvantages Why the Saints may not
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 4,490 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Raiders rank 13th (3.7), Saints 26th (2.9).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Saints lose by 14 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NO -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.6 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · NO n/a | LV 45% · NO 55% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +122 · NO -122 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NO 24, LV 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 14 and NO by 18.
Side by side
| LV | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 27.7 28 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.03 19 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 26 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.6 28 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 7.3% 10 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | LV 35 @ NO 27 | LV | NO -3.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | LV 25 @ NO 10 | LV | LV -2 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | LV 0 @ NO 24 | NO | LV -1 |
| 2020-09-21 | 2020 Wk 2 | NO 24 @ LV 34 | LV | NO -4 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | LV 35 @ NO 34 | LV | NO -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away