NOLV
New Orleans Saints @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
55% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 55% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Saints 28th (-0.6).
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Saints defense that ranks 23rd against it.
- Simulation: Raiders win 5,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Travel: Saints cross 2 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Saints -3.0, Raiders -15.0.
- Upset odds: Saints win 4,540 of 10,000 simulations (45%). A 55% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Saints passing game (20th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Raiders lose by 15 or more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Saints about 0.6 points stronger.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -1.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 48.6 |
| Win chance | NO n/a · LV n/a | NO 45% · LV 55% |
| Fair moneyline | NO +120 · LV -120 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 24, NO 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NO by 15 and LV by 18.
Side by side
| NO | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 27.7 28 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.03 19 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| +0.08 26 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| -0.6 28 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.3% 10 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | LV 35 @ NO 27 | LV | NO -3.5 |
| 2024-12-29 | 2024 Wk 17 | LV 25 @ NO 10 | LV | LV -2 |
| 2022-10-30 | 2022 Wk 8 | LV 0 @ NO 24 | NO | LV -1 |
| 2020-09-21 | 2020 Wk 2 | NO 24 @ LV 34 | LV | NO -4 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | LV 35 @ NO 34 | LV | NO -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away