LVNYG
Las Vegas Raiders @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NYGNew York Giants
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Giants can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Raiders -15.0.
- Travel: Raiders cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Simulation: Giants win 5,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Giants may not
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 4,740 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Giants 20th (-0.3).
- Giants have 3 regulars listed questionable (Paulson Adebo, Marcus Mbow, Jermaine Eluemunor).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Giants 25th (8.0%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NYG -1.3 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.4 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · NYG n/a | LV 47% · NYG 53% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +111 · NYG -111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 24, LV 23.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 16 and NYG by 18.
Side by side
| LV | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | NYG 34 @ LV 10 | NYG | NYG -3 |
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | NYG 6 @ LV 30 | LV | LV -1 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | LV 16 @ NYG 23 | NYG | LV -3 |
| 2017-12-03 | 2017 Wk 13 | NYG 17 @ LV 24 | LV | LV -10 |
| 2013-11-10 | 2013 Wk 10 | LV 20 @ NYG 24 | NYG | NYG -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away