NYGLV
New York Giants @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Simulation: Raiders win 5,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Giants 20th (-0.3).
- Travel: Giants cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Giants -0.3, Raiders -15.0.
- Upset odds: Giants win 4,420 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Giants passing game (18th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 27th against it.
- Giants running game (13th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Giants in our ratings.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -1.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.4 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · LV n/a | NYG 44% · LV 56% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +126 · LV -126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 24, NYG 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 14 and LV by 18.
Side by side
| NYG | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-28 | 2025 Wk 17 | NYG 34 @ LV 10 | NYG | NYG -3 |
| 2023-11-05 | 2023 Wk 9 | NYG 6 @ LV 30 | LV | LV -1 |
| 2021-11-07 | 2021 Wk 9 | LV 16 @ NYG 23 | NYG | LV -3 |
| 2017-12-03 | 2017 Wk 13 | NYG 17 @ LV 24 | LV | LV -10 |
| 2013-11-10 | 2013 Wk 10 | LV 20 @ NYG 24 | NYG | NYG -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away