LVPHI
Las Vegas Raiders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Eagles can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 1.8 points stronger.
- Simulation: Eagles win 5,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Raiders cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Strength: Eagles rank 1st in field goal percentage (100.0%).
Disadvantages Why the Eagles may not
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Upset odds: Raiders win 4,250 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Eagles 21st (-0.4).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Raiders rank 13th (3.7), Eagles 31st (2.0).
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Raiders rank 15th (6.7%), Eagles 32nd (3.2%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · PHI n/a | LV 42% · PHI 57% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +136 · PHI -136 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 23, LV 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 14 and PHI by 19.
Side by side
| LV | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | LV 0 @ PHI 31 | PHI | PHI -12.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | PHI 22 @ LV 33 | LV | LV -1 |
| 2017-12-25 | 2017 Wk 16 | LV 10 @ PHI 19 | PHI | PHI -10 |
| 2013-11-03 | 2013 Wk 9 | PHI 49 @ LV 20 | PHI | PHI -1 |
| 2009-10-18 | 2009 Wk 6 | PHI 9 @ LV 13 | LV | PHI -14 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away