PHILV
Philadelphia Eagles @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
LVLas Vegas Raiders
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Raiders can win
- Raiders passing game (9th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Eagles 21st (-0.4).
- Travel: Eagles cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Raiders win 5,260 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Raiders may not
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 1.9 points stronger.
- Upset odds: Eagles win 4,740 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Raiders lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 32nd in running game, EPA per carry (-0.27).
- Weak spot: Raiders rank 29th in points allowed per game (28.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | LV -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.2 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · LV n/a | PHI 47% · LV 53% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +111 · LV -111 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 23, PHI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 15 and LV by 18.
Side by side
| PHI | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-14 | 2025 Wk 15 | LV 0 @ PHI 31 | PHI | PHI -12.5 |
| 2021-10-24 | 2021 Wk 7 | PHI 22 @ LV 33 | LV | LV -1 |
| 2017-12-25 | 2017 Wk 16 | LV 10 @ PHI 19 | PHI | PHI -10 |
| 2013-11-03 | 2013 Wk 9 | PHI 49 @ LV 20 | PHI | PHI -1 |
| 2009-10-18 | 2009 Wk 6 | PHI 9 @ LV 13 | LV | PHI -14 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away