LVSEA
Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
80% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 80% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.1 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,020 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.6 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 1,980 of 10,000 simulations (20%). A 80% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Seahawks 18th (6.6%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -10.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.1 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · SEA n/a | LV 20% · SEA 80% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +406 · SEA -406 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, LV 17.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 6 and SEA by 27.
Side by side
| LV | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 4-3 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | LV 40 @ SEA 34 | LV | SEA -4 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | SEA 27 @ LV 3 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2014-11-02 | 2014 Wk 9 | LV 24 @ SEA 30 | SEA | SEA -13.5 |
| 2010-10-31 | 2010 Wk 8 | SEA 3 @ LV 33 | LV | LV -1.5 |
| 2006-11-06 | 2006 Wk 9 | LV 0 @ SEA 16 | SEA | SEA -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away