SEALV
Seattle Seahawks @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 5.2 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Seahawks +3.7, Raiders -15.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 7,390 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Seahawks 18th (-0.1).
- Upset odds: Raiders win 2,610 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -6.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.1 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · LV n/a | SEA 74% · LV 26% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -283 · LV +283 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 20, SEA 27.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 24 and LV by 8.
Side by side
| SEA | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 3-4 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-27 | 2022 Wk 12 | LV 40 @ SEA 34 | LV | SEA -4 |
| 2018-10-14 | 2018 Wk 6 | SEA 27 @ LV 3 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2014-11-02 | 2014 Wk 9 | LV 24 @ SEA 30 | SEA | SEA -13.5 |
| 2010-10-31 | 2010 Wk 8 | SEA 3 @ LV 33 | LV | LV -1.5 |
| 2006-11-06 | 2006 Wk 9 | LV 0 @ SEA 16 | SEA | SEA -7 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away