LVTB
Las Vegas Raiders @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
63% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 63% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Raiders -15.0.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 6,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 3,670 of 10,000 simulations (37%). A 63% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Raiders rank 13th (3.7), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
- Turnover margin per game: Raiders rank 5th (+0.6), Buccaneers 14th (+0.1).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Buccaneers lose by 12 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -4.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.3 |
| Win chance | LV n/a · TB n/a | LV 37% · TB 63% |
| Fair moneyline | LV +173 · TB -173 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 26, LV 21.
- 80% of simulations land between LV by 12 and TB by 21.
Side by side
| LV | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | Record | 2-5 |
| 26.1 6 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 28.1 29 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| -0.01 18 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| +0.06 24 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| +0.6 5 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 6.7% 15 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | LV 13 @ TB 28 | TB | TB -7 |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Wk 7 | TB 45 @ LV 20 | TB | TB -3.5 |
| 2016-10-30 | 2016 Wk 8 | LV 30 @ TB 24 | LV | TB -1 |
| 2012-11-04 | 2012 Wk 9 | TB 42 @ LV 32 | TB | LV -1 |
| 2008-12-28 | 2008 Wk 17 | LV 31 @ TB 24 | LV | TB -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away