TBLV
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Any-day matchup, Raiders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
54% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 54% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Buccaneers can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Buccaneers +10.3, Raiders -15.0.
- Buccaneers running game (4th in EPA) faces the Raiders defense that ranks 21st against it.
- Point differential per game: Buccaneers rank 12th (+1.6), Raiders 23rd (-2.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Buccaneers in our ratings.
- Simulation: Buccaneers win 5,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Buccaneers may not
- Upset odds: Raiders win 4,570 of 10,000 simulations (46%). A 54% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Travel: Buccaneers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Raiders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Raiders rank 4th (3.6%), Buccaneers 29th (9.7%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Raiders rank 13th (3.7), Buccaneers 27th (2.7).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TB -1 |
| Total points | n/a | 47.3 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · LV n/a | TB 54% · LV 46% |
| Fair moneyline | TB -119 · LV +119 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: LV 23, TB 24.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 18 and LV by 16.
Side by side
| TB | LV | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 3-4 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 26.1 6 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 28.1 29 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 18 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.06 24 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +0.6 5 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 6.7% 15 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-08 | 2024 Wk 14 | LV 13 @ TB 28 | TB | TB -7 |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Wk 7 | TB 45 @ LV 20 | TB | TB -3.5 |
| 2016-10-30 | 2016 Wk 8 | LV 30 @ TB 24 | LV | TB -1 |
| 2012-11-04 | 2012 Wk 9 | TB 42 @ LV 32 | TB | LV -1 |
| 2008-12-28 | 2008 Wk 17 | LV 31 @ TB 24 | LV | TB -11 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away