MIAPHI
Miami Dolphins @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles
67% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 67% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Eagles can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 3.6 points stronger.
- Simulation: Eagles win 6,730 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Strength: Eagles rank 1st in field goal percentage (100.0%).
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Dolphins 25th (77.8%).
Disadvantages Why the Eagles may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Dolphins -3.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 3,270 of 10,000 simulations (33%). A 67% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Dolphins rank 20th (3.2), Eagles 31st (2.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Eagles lose by 11 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -5.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 42 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · PHI n/a | MIA 33% · PHI 67% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +206 · PHI -206 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 23, MIA 17.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 11 and PHI by 22.
Side by side
| MIA | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 2-5 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-22 | 2023 Wk 7 | MIA 17 @ PHI 31 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | PHI 31 @ MIA 37 | MIA | PHI -10.5 |
| 2015-11-15 | 2015 Wk 10 | MIA 20 @ PHI 19 | MIA | PHI -5.5 |
| 2011-12-11 | 2011 Wk 14 | PHI 26 @ MIA 10 | PHI | MIA -3 |
| 2007-11-18 | 2007 Wk 11 | MIA 7 @ PHI 17 | PHI | PHI -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away