PHIMIA
Philadelphia Eagles @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Eagles can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Eagles about 3.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Eagles win 5,660 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Strength: Eagles rank 1st in field goal percentage (100.0%).
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Dolphins 25th (77.8%).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Eagles rank 20th (7.1%), Dolphins 28th (9.6%).
Disadvantages Why the Eagles may not
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 28th against it.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 4,340 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Dolphins -3.0, Eagles -10.0.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Dolphins rank 20th (3.2), Eagles 31st (2.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | PHI -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 42 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · MIA n/a | PHI 57% · MIA 43% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI -130 · MIA +130 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 20, PHI 21.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 18 and MIA by 14.
Side by side
| PHI | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 1-5 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-10-22 | 2023 Wk 7 | MIA 17 @ PHI 31 | PHI | PHI -3 |
| 2019-12-01 | 2019 Wk 13 | PHI 31 @ MIA 37 | MIA | PHI -10.5 |
| 2015-11-15 | 2015 Wk 10 | MIA 20 @ PHI 19 | MIA | PHI -5.5 |
| 2011-12-11 | 2011 Wk 14 | PHI 26 @ MIA 10 | PHI | MIA -3 |
| 2007-11-18 | 2007 Wk 11 | MIA 7 @ PHI 17 | PHI | PHI -9.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away