MIASEA
Miami Dolphins @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
87% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 87% pick loses about 1 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 6.8 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.4 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,710 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Seahawks passing game (17th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 1,290 of 10,000 simulations (13%). A 87% pick still loses about 1 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Seahawks lose by 3 or more.
- Penalty yards per game: Dolphins rank 4th (47.7), Seahawks 23rd (66.9).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -13 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.9 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · SEA n/a | MIA 13% · SEA 87% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +675 · SEA -675 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 27, MIA 14.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 3 and SEA by 30.
Side by side
| MIA | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | MIA 3 @ SEA 24 | SEA | SEA -4 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | SEA 31 @ MIA 23 | SEA | SEA -4.5 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | MIA 10 @ SEA 12 | SEA | SEA -10.5 |
| 2012-11-25 | 2012 Wk 12 | SEA 21 @ MIA 24 | MIA | SEA -3 |
| 2008-11-09 | 2008 Wk 10 | SEA 19 @ MIA 21 | MIA | MIA -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away