SEAMIA
Seattle Seahawks @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
82% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 82% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 6.9 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Seahawks rank 6th (+6.1), Dolphins 31st (-9.8).
- Simulation: Seahawks win 8,190 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Seahawks passing game (17th in EPA) faces the Dolphins defense that ranks 32nd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 1,810 of 10,000 simulations (18%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -9.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.9 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · MIA n/a | SEA 82% · MIA 18% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -452 · MIA +452 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 16, SEA 26.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 27 and MIA by 6.
Side by side
| SEA | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 1-5 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-22 | 2024 Wk 3 | MIA 3 @ SEA 24 | SEA | SEA -4 |
| 2020-10-04 | 2020 Wk 4 | SEA 31 @ MIA 23 | SEA | SEA -4.5 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | MIA 10 @ SEA 12 | SEA | SEA -10.5 |
| 2012-11-25 | 2012 Wk 12 | SEA 21 @ MIA 24 | MIA | SEA -3 |
| 2008-11-09 | 2008 Wk 10 | SEA 19 @ MIA 21 | MIA | MIA -9 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away