MIATEN
Miami Dolphins @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
TENTennessee Titans
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Titans can win
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Simulation: Titans win 5,330 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Dolphins 30th (3.3%).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Dolphins 28th (9.6%).
- Strength: Titans rank 5th in penalty yards per game (48.1).
Disadvantages Why the Titans may not
- Upset odds: Dolphins win 4,670 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Dolphins rank 20th (3.2), Titans 31st (2.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Titans lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Titans rank 31st in offense, EPA per play (-0.11).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | TEN -1.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.7 |
| Win chance | MIA n/a · TEN n/a | MIA 47% · TEN 53% |
| Fair moneyline | MIA +114 · TEN -114 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 21, MIA 20.
- 80% of simulations land between MIA by 15 and TEN by 18.
Side by side
| MIA | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-5 | Record | 1-6 |
| 16.3 30 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 26.2 25 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| -0.04 21 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| +0.12 30 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -0.5 26 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 3.3% 30 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | 2024 Wk 4 | TEN 31 @ MIA 12 | TEN | MIA -2.5 |
| 2023-12-11 | 2023 Wk 14 | TEN 28 @ MIA 27 | TEN | MIA -14 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | MIA 3 @ TEN 34 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | TEN 20 @ MIA 27 | MIA | TEN -1 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | TEN 10 @ MIA 16 | MIA | Pick'em |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away