TENMIA
Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins
Any-day matchup, Dolphins at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MIAMiami Dolphins
56% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 56% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Dolphins can win
- Simulation: Dolphins win 5,580 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Home field: Dolphins play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Dolphins running game (7th in EPA) faces the Titans defense that ranks 17th against it.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Dolphins rank 20th (3.2), Titans 31st (2.0).
- Strength: Dolphins rank 4th in penalty yards per game (47.7).
Disadvantages Why the Dolphins may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 4,420 of 10,000 simulations (44%). A 56% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Titans rank 12th (7.1%), Dolphins 30th (3.3%).
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Dolphins 28th (9.6%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Dolphins lose by 14 or more.
- Weak spot: Dolphins rank 32nd in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.34).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIA -2.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 41.7 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · MIA n/a | TEN 44% · MIA 56% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +126 · MIA -126 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIA 21, TEN 20.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 14 and MIA by 18.
Side by side
| TEN | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 1-5 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 16.3 30 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 26.2 25 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.04 21 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.12 30 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -0.5 26 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 3.3% 30 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-30 | 2024 Wk 4 | TEN 31 @ MIA 12 | TEN | MIA -2.5 |
| 2023-12-11 | 2023 Wk 14 | TEN 28 @ MIA 27 | TEN | MIA -14 |
| 2022-01-02 | 2021 Wk 17 | MIA 3 @ TEN 34 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | TEN 20 @ MIA 27 | MIA | TEN -1 |
| 2017-10-08 | 2017 Wk 5 | TEN 10 @ MIA 16 | MIA | Pick'em |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away