MINSF
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
59% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 59% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,900 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: 49ers rank 2nd (3.2%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Home field: 49ers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: 49ers rank 4th (4.0), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Travel: Vikings cross 2 time zones for this one.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,100 of 10,000 simulations (41%). A 59% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, 49ers +0.0.
- Pass rush, sacks per dropback: Vikings rank 1st (10.6%), 49ers 21st (5.7%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -3 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · SF n/a | MIN 41% · SF 59% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN +144 · SF -144 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 24, MIN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 14 and SF by 20.
Side by side
| MIN | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 6-1 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | SF 17 @ MIN 23 | MIN | SF -4.5 |
| 2023-10-23 | 2023 Wk 7 | SF 17 @ MIN 22 | MIN | SF -7 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | MIN 26 @ SF 34 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2020-01-11 | 2019 Divisional | MIN 10 @ SF 27 | SF | SF -7 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | SF 16 @ MIN 24 | MIN | MIN -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away