SFMIN
San Francisco 49ers @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
51% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 51% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: 49ers rank 2nd (3.2%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: 49ers rank 4th (4.0), Vikings 23rd (3.0).
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,080 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 0.8 points stronger.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Vikings defense that ranks 8th against it.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Upset odds: Vikings win 4,920 of 10,000 simulations (49%). A 51% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), 49ers 21st (-0.4).
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, 49ers +0.0.
- Home field: Vikings play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -0.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 45.6 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · MIN n/a | SF 51% · MIN 49% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -103 · MIN +103 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 23, SF 23.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 17 and MIN by 17.
Side by side
| SF | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 6-0 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | SF 17 @ MIN 23 | MIN | SF -4.5 |
| 2023-10-23 | 2023 Wk 7 | SF 17 @ MIN 22 | MIN | SF -7 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | MIN 26 @ SF 34 | SF | SF -3.5 |
| 2020-01-11 | 2019 Divisional | MIN 10 @ SF 27 | SF | SF -7 |
| 2018-09-09 | 2018 Wk 1 | SF 16 @ MIN 24 | MIN | MIN -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away