MINTB
Minnesota Vikings @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Any-day matchup, Buccaneers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 2.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Vikings win 5,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Buccaneers 12th (+1.6).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.2 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Turnover margin per game: Vikings rank 1st (+1.2), Buccaneers 14th (+0.1).
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 4,250 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Buccaneers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 15 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -1.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · TB n/a | MIN 57% · TB 42% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -135 · TB +135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TB 20, MIN 21.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 18 and TB by 15.
Side by side
| MIN | TB | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 2-5 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 23.1 17 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 21.6 14 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.08 28 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.12 3 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +0.1 14 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 6.1% 18 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | MIN 23 @ TB 16 | MIN | MIN -1.5 |
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | TB 20 @ MIN 17 | TB | MIN -4 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | MIN 14 @ TB 26 | TB | TB -7 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | TB 17 @ MIN 34 | MIN | Pick'em |
| 2014-10-26 | 2014 Wk 8 | MIN 19 @ TB 13 | MIN | TB -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away