TBMIN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
66% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 66% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 2.1 points stronger.
- Simulation: Vikings win 6,640 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Buccaneers 12th (+1.6).
- Home field: Vikings play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.1 points to Vikings in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Buccaneers win 3,360 of 10,000 simulations (34%). A 66% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in running game, EPA per carry (-0.17).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -5 |
| Total points | n/a | 42.7 |
| Win chance | TB n/a · MIN n/a | TB 34% · MIN 66% |
| Fair moneyline | TB +198 · MIN -198 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 24, TB 17.
- 80% of simulations land between TB by 11 and MIN by 23.
Side by side
| TB | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 6-0 |
| 23.1 17 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 21.6 14 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| -0.08 28 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| -0.12 3 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +0.1 14 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 6.1% 18 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-27 | 2026 Wk 3 | MIN 23 @ TB 16 | MIN | MIN -1.5 |
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | TB 20 @ MIN 17 | TB | MIN -4 |
| 2020-12-13 | 2020 Wk 14 | MIN 14 @ TB 26 | TB | TB -7 |
| 2017-09-24 | 2017 Wk 3 | TB 17 @ MIN 34 | MIN | Pick'em |
| 2014-10-26 | 2014 Wk 8 | MIN 19 @ TB 13 | MIN | TB -1 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away