MINTEN
Minnesota Vikings @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
78% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 78% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 5.1 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.6 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Titans -6.7.
- Simulation: Vikings win 7,780 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,220 of 10,000 simulations (22%). A 78% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -7.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 40.3 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · TEN n/a | MIN 78% · TEN 22% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -350 · TEN +350 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 16, MIN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 25 and TEN by 7.
Side by side
| MIN | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 1-6 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | MIN 23 @ TEN 13 | MIN | MIN -6 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | TEN 31 @ MIN 30 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | MIN 25 @ TEN 16 | MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | TEN 7 @ MIN 30 | MIN | MIN -6 |
| 2008-09-28 | 2008 Wk 4 | MIN 17 @ TEN 30 | TEN | TEN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away