TENMIN
Tennessee Titans @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
84% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 84% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 5.0 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.5 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Titans 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Vikings win 8,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Titans -6.7.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Titans rank 9th (5.0%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,590 of 10,000 simulations (16%). A 84% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 4 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -11 |
| Total points | n/a | 40.3 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · MIN n/a | TEN 16% · MIN 84% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +529 · MIN -529 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 26, TEN 14.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 4 and MIN by 28.
Side by side
| TEN | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 6-0 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-17 | 2024 Wk 11 | MIN 23 @ TEN 13 | MIN | MIN -6 |
| 2020-09-27 | 2020 Wk 3 | TEN 31 @ MIN 30 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2016-09-11 | 2016 Wk 1 | MIN 25 @ TEN 16 | MIN | MIN -2.5 |
| 2012-10-07 | 2012 Wk 5 | TEN 7 @ MIN 30 | MIN | MIN -6 |
| 2008-09-28 | 2008 Wk 4 | MIN 17 @ TEN 30 | TEN | TEN -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away