MINWAS
Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders
Any-day matchup, Commanders at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
69% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 69% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 3.3 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Commanders -7.7.
- Simulation: Vikings win 6,870 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Home field: Commanders play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Commanders win 3,130 of 10,000 simulations (31%). A 69% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Commanders rank 16th (6.5%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 11 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -5.4 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | MIN n/a · WAS n/a | MIN 69% · WAS 31% |
| Fair moneyline | MIN -219 · WAS +219 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: WAS 20, MIN 24.
- 80% of simulations land between MIN by 22 and WAS by 11.
Side by side
| MIN | WAS | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-0 | Record | 1-4-1 |
| 20.8 24 | Points per game | 22.0 20 |
| 12.3 1 | Points allowed | 28.7 31 |
| -0.09 29 | Offense EPA/play | -0.01 17 |
| -0.19 1 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.08 25 |
| +1.2 1 | Turnover margin/game | +1.0 2 |
| 10.6% 1 | Sacks per dropback | 4.8% 23 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | WAS 0 @ MIN 31 | MIN | WAS -1.5 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | MIN 20 @ WAS 17 | MIN | MIN -3 |
| 2019-10-24 | 2019 Wk 8 | WAS 9 @ MIN 19 | MIN | MIN -16.5 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | MIN 38 @ WAS 30 | MIN | MIN -1 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | MIN 20 @ WAS 26 | WAS | WAS -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away