WASMIN
Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings
Any-day matchup, Vikings at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
MINMinnesota Vikings
77% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 77% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Vikings can win
- Point differential per game: Vikings rank 1st (+8.5), Commanders 27th (-6.7).
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Vikings about 3.2 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to Vikings in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Vikings +7.0, Commanders -7.7.
- Simulation: Vikings win 7,700 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Vikings may not
- Upset odds: Commanders win 2,300 of 10,000 simulations (23%). A 77% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback: Commanders rank 16th (6.5%), Vikings 30th (9.9%).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Vikings lose by 7 or more.
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 30th in pass protection, sacks allowed per dropback (9.9%).
- Weak spot: Vikings rank 29th in offense, EPA per play (-0.09).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | MIN -8.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.4 |
| Win chance | WAS n/a · MIN n/a | WAS 23% · MIN 77% |
| Fair moneyline | WAS +336 · MIN -336 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: MIN 26, WAS 17.
- 80% of simulations land between WAS by 7 and MIN by 25.
Side by side
| WAS | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-4-1 | Record | 6-0 |
| 22.0 20 | Points per game | 20.8 24 |
| 28.7 31 | Points allowed | 12.3 1 |
| -0.01 17 | Offense EPA/play | -0.09 29 |
| +0.08 25 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.19 1 |
| +1.0 2 | Turnover margin/game | +1.2 1 |
| 4.8% 23 | Sacks per dropback | 10.6% 1 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-07 | 2025 Wk 14 | WAS 0 @ MIN 31 | MIN | WAS -1.5 |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Wk 9 | MIN 20 @ WAS 17 | MIN | MIN -3 |
| 2019-10-24 | 2019 Wk 8 | WAS 9 @ MIN 19 | MIN | MIN -16.5 |
| 2017-11-12 | 2017 Wk 10 | MIN 38 @ WAS 30 | MIN | MIN -1 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | MIN 20 @ WAS 26 | WAS | WAS -2.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away