NENYG
New England Patriots @ New York Giants
Any-day matchup, Giants at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
64% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 64% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 3.8 points stronger.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Giants -0.3.
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,410 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.4 points to Patriots in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 3,590 of 10,000 simulations (36%). A 64% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Giants play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Giants rank 20th (-0.3), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -3.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.1 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · NYG n/a | NE 64% · NYG 36% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -179 · NYG +179 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NYG 20, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 21 and NYG by 13.
Side by side
| NE | NYG | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-2-1 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 23.3 16 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 23.0 17 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.00 16 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.00 16 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.3 20 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 3.9% 29 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | 2025 Wk 13 | NYG 15 @ NE 33 | NE | NE -7 |
| 2023-11-26 | 2023 Wk 12 | NE 7 @ NYG 10 | NYG | NE -4.5 |
| 2019-10-10 | 2019 Wk 6 | NYG 14 @ NE 35 | NE | NE -16.5 |
| 2015-11-15 | 2015 Wk 10 | NE 27 @ NYG 26 | NE | NE -7 |
| 2012-02-05 | 2011 Super Bowl | NYG 21 @ NE 17 | NYG | NE -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away