NYGNE
New York Giants @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
71% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 71% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Giants are missing regulars: LB Tremaine Edmunds (out), S Jevon Holland (out), CB Greg Newsome II (out) and 1 more.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 3.7 points stronger.
- Simulation: Patriots win 7,130 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Giants -0.3.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 1.3 points to Patriots in our ratings.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Giants win 2,870 of 10,000 simulations (29%). A 71% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Giants rank 20th (-0.3), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 22nd in pass defense, EPA per dropback allowed (+0.10).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -7 |
| Total points | n/a | 46.1 |
| Win chance | NYG n/a · NE n/a | NYG 29% · NE 71% |
| Fair moneyline | NYG +249 · NE -249 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 27, NYG 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NYG by 10 and NE by 24.
Side by side
| NYG | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-2-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 23.3 16 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 23.0 17 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.00 16 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| +0.00 16 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.3 20 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 3.9% 29 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-01 | 2025 Wk 13 | NYG 15 @ NE 33 | NE | NE -7 |
| 2023-11-26 | 2023 Wk 12 | NE 7 @ NYG 10 | NYG | NE -4.5 |
| 2019-10-10 | 2019 Wk 6 | NYG 14 @ NE 35 | NE | NE -16.5 |
| 2015-11-15 | 2015 Wk 10 | NE 27 @ NYG 26 | NE | NE -7 |
| 2012-02-05 | 2011 Super Bowl | NYG 21 @ NE 17 | NYG | NE -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away