NEPHI
New England Patriots @ Philadelphia Eagles
Any-day matchup, Eagles at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Eagles -10.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.8 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,170 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,830 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Home field: Eagles play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Eagles rank 21st (-0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 13 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -3.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · PHI n/a | NE 62% · PHI 38% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -161 · PHI +161 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: PHI 20, NE 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 20 and PHI by 13.
Side by side
| NE | PHI | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 2-5 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 18.1 29 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 25.0 21 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 30 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.09 27 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 3.2% 32 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | PHI 25 @ NE 20 | PHI | PHI -3.5 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | NE 17 @ PHI 10 | NE | NE -4.5 |
| 2018-02-04 | 2017 Super Bowl | PHI 41 @ NE 33 | PHI | NE -4.5 |
| 2015-12-06 | 2015 Wk 13 | PHI 35 @ NE 28 | PHI | NE -9.5 |
| 2011-11-27 | 2011 Wk 12 | NE 38 @ PHI 20 | NE | NE -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away