PHINE
Philadelphia Eagles @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
70% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 70% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Eagles -10.0.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 2.7 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the Eagles defense that ranks 26th against it.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Eagles 28th (-6.9).
- Simulation: Patriots win 6,980 of 10,000 simulated games.
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Eagles win 3,020 of 10,000 simulations (30%). A 70% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Eagles rank 21st (-0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 10 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
- Field goal percentage: Eagles rank 1st (100.0%), Patriots 18th (81.8%).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -6.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.9 |
| Win chance | PHI n/a · NE n/a | PHI 30% · NE 70% |
| Fair moneyline | PHI +231 · NE -231 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 24, PHI 17.
- 80% of simulations land between PHI by 10 and NE by 23.
Side by side
| PHI | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | Record | 4-3 |
| 18.1 29 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 25.0 21 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.11 30 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| +0.09 27 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 3.2% 32 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-10 | 2023 Wk 1 | PHI 25 @ NE 20 | PHI | PHI -3.5 |
| 2019-11-17 | 2019 Wk 11 | NE 17 @ PHI 10 | NE | NE -4.5 |
| 2018-02-04 | 2017 Super Bowl | PHI 41 @ NE 33 | PHI | NE -4.5 |
| 2015-12-06 | 2015 Wk 13 | PHI 35 @ NE 28 | PHI | NE -9.5 |
| 2011-11-27 | 2011 Wk 12 | NE 38 @ PHI 20 | NE | NE -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away