NESEA
New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks
Any-day matchup, Seahawks at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
65% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 65% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 2.2 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 6,460 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Patriots cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Seahawks play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Turnover margin per game: Seahawks rank 18th (-0.1), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Upset odds: Patriots win 3,540 of 10,000 simulations (35%). A 65% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Seahawks +3.7.
- Seahawks have 2 regulars listed questionable (Nick Emmanwori, DeMarcus Lawrence).
- Explosive plays (20+ yards) per game: Patriots rank 6th (3.9), Seahawks 17th (3.6).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -4.9 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.9 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · SEA n/a | NE 35% · SEA 65% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +182 · SEA -182 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SEA 24, NE 20.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 11 and SEA by 22.
Side by side
| NE | SEA | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 24.0 13 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 17.9 4 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.05 24 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.13 2 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.1 18 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 7.4% 8 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 2026 Wk 1 | NE 10 @ SEA 13 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2026-02-08 | 2025 Super Bowl | SEA 29 @ NE 13 | SEA | SEA -4.5 |
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | SEA 23 @ NE 20 | SEA | SEA -3.5 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | NE 30 @ SEA 35 | SEA | SEA -4 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | SEA 31 @ NE 24 | SEA | NE -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away