SEANE
Seattle Seahawks @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SEASeattle Seahawks
57% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 57% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Seahawks can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Seahawks about 2.3 points stronger.
- Simulation: Seahawks win 5,750 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Turnover margin per game: Seahawks rank 18th (-0.1), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 0.7 points to Seahawks in our ratings.
- Seahawks passing game (17th in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
Disadvantages Why the Seahawks may not
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,250 of 10,000 simulations (43%). A 57% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Seahawks are missing regulars: LB Drake Thomas (out).
- Travel: Seahawks cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Seahawks +3.7.
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SEA -1.7 |
| Total points | n/a | 44.9 |
| Win chance | SEA n/a · NE n/a | SEA 57% · NE 42% |
| Fair moneyline | SEA -135 · NE +135 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 21, SEA 23.
- 80% of simulations land between SEA by 18 and NE by 14.
Side by side
| SEA | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 4-3 |
| 24.0 13 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 17.9 4 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.05 24 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.13 2 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.1 18 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 7.4% 8 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | 2026 Wk 1 | NE 10 @ SEA 13 | SEA | SEA -3 |
| 2026-02-08 | 2025 Super Bowl | SEA 29 @ NE 13 | SEA | SEA -4.5 |
| 2024-09-15 | 2024 Wk 2 | SEA 23 @ NE 20 | SEA | SEA -3.5 |
| 2020-09-20 | 2020 Wk 2 | NE 30 @ SEA 35 | SEA | SEA -4 |
| 2016-11-13 | 2016 Wk 10 | SEA 31 @ NE 24 | SEA | NE -7.5 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away