NESF
New England Patriots @ San Francisco 49ers
Any-day matchup, 49ers at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
62% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 62% pick loses about 4 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 6,210 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Travel: Patriots cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: 49ers play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, 49ers +0.0.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Upset odds: Patriots win 3,790 of 10,000 simulations (38%). A 62% pick still loses about 4 times in 10.
- Patriots passing game (7th in EPA) faces the 49ers defense that ranks 14th against it.
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, 49ers lose by 13 or more.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -3.8 |
| Total points | n/a | 49 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · SF n/a | NE 38% · SF 62% |
| Fair moneyline | NE +164 · SF -164 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: SF 26, NE 23.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 13 and SF by 21.
Side by side
| NE | SF | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 6-1 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 28.1 3 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 19.9 6 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | +0.19 2 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | -0.03 12 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 5.7% 21 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | NE 13 @ SF 30 | SF | SF -10.5 |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Wk 7 | SF 33 @ NE 6 | SF | NE -3 |
| 2016-11-20 | 2016 Wk 11 | NE 30 @ SF 17 | NE | NE -10.5 |
| 2012-12-16 | 2012 Wk 15 | SF 41 @ NE 34 | SF | NE -4 |
| 2008-10-05 | 2008 Wk 5 | NE 30 @ SF 21 | NE | NE -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away