SFNE
San Francisco 49ers @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
SFSan Francisco 49ers
53% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 53% pick loses about 5 times in 10.
Advantages Why the 49ers can win
- 49ers passing game (2nd in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 22nd against it.
- 49ers running game (3rd in EPA) faces the Patriots defense that ranks 16th against it.
- Simulation: 49ers win 5,290 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated 49ers about 1.1 points stronger.
- Point differential per game: 49ers rank 3rd (+8.3), Patriots 10th (+2.4).
Disadvantages Why the 49ers may not
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, 49ers +0.0.
- Upset odds: Patriots win 4,710 of 10,000 simulations (47%). A 53% pick still loses about 5 times in 10.
- 49ers are missing regulars: WR Mike Evans (out), WR Deebo Samuel Sr. (out).
- Travel: 49ers cross 3 time zones for this one.
- Home field: Patriots play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | SF -0.6 |
| Total points | n/a | 49 |
| Win chance | SF n/a · NE n/a | SF 53% · NE 47% |
| Fair moneyline | SF -112 · NE +112 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 24, SF 24.
- 80% of simulations land between SF by 17 and NE by 16.
Side by side
| SF | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | Record | 4-3 |
| 28.1 3 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 19.9 6 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| +0.19 2 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| -0.03 12 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 5.7% 21 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-09-29 | 2024 Wk 4 | NE 13 @ SF 30 | SF | SF -10.5 |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Wk 7 | SF 33 @ NE 6 | SF | NE -3 |
| 2016-11-20 | 2016 Wk 11 | NE 30 @ SF 17 | NE | NE -10.5 |
| 2012-12-16 | 2012 Wk 15 | SF 41 @ NE 34 | SF | NE -4 |
| 2008-10-05 | 2008 Wk 5 | NE 30 @ SF 21 | NE | NE -3 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away