NETEN
New England Patriots @ Tennessee Titans
Any-day matchup, Titans at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
74% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 74% pick loses about 3 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 4.8 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.1 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Titans -6.7.
- Simulation: Patriots win 7,430 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Home field: Titans play at home, worth roughly 1 to 2 points in recent seasons.
- Upset odds: Titans win 2,570 of 10,000 simulations (26%). A 74% pick still loses about 3 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Titans rank 21st (-0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 9 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -7.1 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.7 |
| Win chance | NE n/a · TEN n/a | NE 74% · TEN 26% |
| Fair moneyline | NE -289 · TEN +289 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: TEN 17, NE 24.
- 80% of simulations land between NE by 24 and TEN by 9.
Side by side
| NE | TEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-3 | Record | 1-6 |
| 22.9 19 | Points per game | 15.4 31 |
| 20.4 9 | Points allowed | 22.3 15 |
| +0.07 9 | Offense EPA/play | -0.11 31 |
| +0.03 20 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.05 22 |
| -1.0 31 | Turnover margin/game | -0.4 21 |
| 7.0% 13 | Sacks per dropback | 7.1% 12 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | NE 31 @ TEN 13 | NE | NE -6.5 |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | NE 17 @ TEN 20 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | TEN 13 @ NE 36 | NE | NE -7.5 |
| 2020-01-04 | 2019 Wild Card | TEN 20 @ NE 13 | TEN | NE -4.5 |
| 2018-11-11 | 2018 Wk 10 | NE 10 @ TEN 34 | TEN | NE -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away