TENNE
Tennessee Titans @ New England Patriots
Any-day matchup, Patriots at home · power ratings as of
Our pick
NENew England Patriots
82% to win
A probability, not a promise: a 82% pick loses about 2 times in 10.
Advantages Why the Patriots can win
- Season-long ratings: over the season, betting lines have rated Patriots about 4.8 points stronger.
- Recent scoring margins: worth about 3.0 points to Patriots in our ratings.
- Recent form: average margin over the last three games, Patriots +9.7, Titans -6.7.
- Simulation: Patriots win 8,150 of 10,000 simulated games.
- Point differential per game: Patriots rank 10th (+2.4), Titans 28th (-6.9).
Disadvantages Why the Patriots may not
- Upset odds: Titans win 1,850 of 10,000 simulations (19%). A 82% pick still loses about 2 times in 10.
- Turnover margin per game: Titans rank 21st (-0.4), Patriots 31st (-1.0).
- Range of outcomes: in the worst 10% of simulations, Patriots lose by 5 or more.
- Weak spot: Patriots rank 31st in turnover margin per game (-1.0).
- Penalty yards per game: Titans rank 5th (48.1), Patriots 20th (61.1).
The line and our numbers
| Market | AZMango | |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | No line yet | NE -10.2 |
| Total points | n/a | 43.7 |
| Win chance | TEN n/a · NE n/a | TEN 18% · NE 82% |
| Fair moneyline | TEN +439 · NE -439 |
No betting line for this pairing. Odds change all the time, so check a sportsbook before acting on any number here.
10,000 simulated games
- Typical score: NE 27, TEN 16.
- 80% of simulations land between TEN by 5 and NE by 28.
Side by side
| TEN | NE | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | Record | 4-3 |
| 15.4 31 | Points per game | 22.9 19 |
| 22.3 15 | Points allowed | 20.4 9 |
| -0.11 31 | Offense EPA/play | +0.07 9 |
| +0.05 22 | Defense EPA/play allowed | +0.03 20 |
| -0.4 21 | Turnover margin/game | -1.0 31 |
| 7.1% 12 | Sacks per dropback | 7.0% 13 |
Small numbers are league ranks (1 = best). EPA (expected points added) measures how much each play changes a team's expected score.
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Game | Score | Winner | Closing line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-19 | 2025 Wk 7 | NE 31 @ TEN 13 | NE | NE -6.5 |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Wk 9 | NE 17 @ TEN 20 | TEN | TEN -3 |
| 2021-11-28 | 2021 Wk 12 | TEN 13 @ NE 36 | NE | NE -7.5 |
| 2020-01-04 | 2019 Wild Card | TEN 20 @ NE 13 | TEN | NE -4.5 |
| 2018-11-11 | 2018 Wk 10 | NE 10 @ TEN 34 | TEN | NE -6 |
Basis: power ratings only (no betting line yet). 10,000 drive-by-drive simulations, calibrated so our percentages match how often teams actually won in a 2020-2026 backtest. Model version 1. How it works
No betting line exists for a game that isn't scheduled, so this uses our own power ratings (they pick about 65% of winners in the backtest). Flip home and away